CHEN Jiahui 1 , WANG Haibo 2 , KE Lixin 3 , LI Jieyun 4 , WANG Zhifei 5 , WANG Ziyi 6 , ZHANG Qiang 7 , LU Cuncun 5
  • 1. Clinical Skills Training Center, the First Hospital of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, P. R. China;
  • 2. Department of Critical Care Medicine, Affiliated Hospital of Gansu University of Chinese Medicine, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, P. R. China;
  • 3. Department of Pediatrics, Medical Center of University of Groningen, Groningen 9713GZ, Netherlands;
  • 4. School of Basic Medical Sciences, Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Shanghai 201203, P. R. China;
  • 5. Institute of Basic Research in Clinical Medicine, China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences, Beijing 100700, P. R. China;
  • 6. Evidence-Based Social Science Research Center, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, P. R. China;
  • 7. The First Affiliated Hospital of Henan University of CM, Zhengzhou, Henan 450000, P. R. China;
LU Cuncun, Email: lu17metrics@163.com
Disease burden; liver cancer; nonalcoholic steatohepatitis; trend
10.7507/1002-0179.202408168
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Objective  To analyze the disease burden of liver cancer caused by nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) among the Chinese population by utilizing the latest global burden of disease (GBD) 2021 data, and conduct a comparative analysis with the global situation, so as to provide references and lessons for the formulation of public health policies and disease management plans in China. Methods  GBD 2021 database publicly released in May 2024 was searched and relevant disease burden data of liver cancer caused by NASH in China and globally from 1990 to 2021 was sorted out. Joinpoint regression model was employed to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of the age-standardized rates of various burden indicators in order to evaluate the changing characteristics of disease epidemiology over time. Meanwhile, Bayesian method was used to predict the number of incidences and deaths of liver cancer caused by NASH in China and globally from 2022 to 2045. Results  Compared with 1990, in 2021, the number of incidences, prevalence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years, age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized prevalence rate of liver cancer caused by NASH in the overall, male and female populations in China and globally all increased. Moreover, in 1990 and 2021, all the burden indicators of the Chinese male population were higher than those of the female population in the corresponding years. The overall trend analysis showed that during the 32 years from 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate [AAPC=0.44%, 95%CI (0.35%, 0.53%), P<0.001] and the age-standardized prevalence rate [AAPC=0.92%, 95%CI (0.73%, 1.11%), P<0.001] of liver cancer caused by NASH in the overall population in China both showed a significant upward trend. In addition, in 1990 and 2021, the age-standardized rates of all the burden indicators of the overall population in China were higher than the global levels in the corresponding years. The prediction results of the Bayesian model showed that from 2022 to 2045, the number of incidences and deaths of liver cancer caused by NASH in the overall, male and female populations in China and globally will generally show an upward trend. Conclusions  The disease burden of liver cancer caused by NASH in China and globally is generally on the rise. In order to curb the increasing disease burden, it is necessary to formulate relevant public health policies and disease management plans in a timely manner.

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